Historians have their work cut out for them. It takes a lot of hard work and dedication to create history. Historians can interpret historical events using a variety of different theories, which act as a sort of lens that historians can use to explain why history unfolded the way it did. Examples of such theories include Marxist history, psychohistory and quantitative history. Marxist history, or at least aspects of it, was highly influential on a great deal of historians, yet contains a problem which limits its use for historians today. Psychohistory was once used by some historians, but it has been largely discarded as a means of historical analysis due largely to changes in our understanding of psychology and the inherent problems associated with it. Quantitative history has clear benefits associated with it, and thus continues to be used by historians, although it too has problems that cannot be overlooked.
Marxism’s impact in history cannot be underestimated. It had a remarkable impact on social sciences, and while few historians actually agreed with Marx in the early 20th-century, they were nonetheless influenced by him (Howell & Prevenier, p. 90). Marxism as a political philosophy shaped the course of history throughout the world in various countries, for better or worse. Marxism as historical theory, at least in its original form as put forth by Karl Marx, sees historical events through a lens known as “historical materialism.” In essence, it means that historical change occurs as a result of human needs, which leads to production of those needs, which leads to more needs and so on. Therefore, how these needs are met is really what shapes human history, and all other aspects of a society (political and legal systems, etc.) come from that (Green & Troup, p. 34-35). Economic classes come from different economic roles in fulfilling needs, and these classes eventually clash with one another as part of a process known as the dialectic and lead to change in a society (in Marx’s mind this would happen in several stages which would culminate in a classless society known as communism).
Marxism’s principal benefit is that it looks like a reasonable explanation for human events on the surface. There is no doubt that many human events were indeed shaped by economic conditions. Assuming that the appropriate source criticism is applied to whatever sources one is using, Marxism appears to be a winner. Despite this, the central problem with Marxist historical theory is that it reduces all historical events to a single root cause, namely economics and class struggle. Christopher Hill’s The English Revolution 1640: An Essay serves as a good example of the pitfalls associated with Marxist theory. His main point was that the English Civil War in 1640 was essentially a “class war” as he terms it (Hill, The English Revolution 1640: An Essay, p. 6 in Green & Troup, p. 37), an essential part of capitalist development in England. To back up his thesis, he used economic evidence. However, as Hill himself later pointed out, “we must widen our view so as to embrace the total activity of society. Any event so complex as a revolution must be seen as a whole. Large numbers of men and women were drawn into political activity by religious and political ideals as well as by economic necessities (Hill, Puritanism and Revolution, p. 31 in Green & Troup, p. 37).” Thus even Hill eventually recognized that historical change is not always about economics. Historians must be careful not to fall into the trap of reductionism. As one author says, “few historians have argued that there is a single lens through which the past can be interpreted…none in itself- no matter its particular relevance to one age or another…is operative in every circumstance (Howell & Prevenier, p. 131).”
While one might be inclined to think of psychohistory as being psychological interpretations of history using 21st-century understandings of psychology, psychohistory is in fact defined as “the use of psychoanalysis to aid our understanding of historical personalities, groups or trends (Green & Troup, p. 59).” For historians who have also studied psychology, psychohistory may look like a very tempting historical theory to use in explaining people and events. It can help make sense out of events that seem difficult to interpret. For example, William Reich’s The Mass Psychology of Fascism postulated that the attraction to Nazism by Germans, and indeed every political movement, came from the psychological characteristics of German people. There are, however, multiple problems with psychohistory.
The first, and probably most important, flaw in psychohistory is the use of psychoanalysis. Sigmund Freud’s theories formed the basis for modern-day Western psychological knowledge and practice, but they have been significantly modified since his time, so that the use of psychoanalysis in its original form is now limited to a minority of psychologists. Psychoanalytic theory itself claims that our experiences in infancy and childhood shape our behavior, that we all go through stages of development, adult behavior is determined by the unconscious mind and that there is a psychic conflict reflected in adult behavior (Penelope Hetherington, Freud, Psychoanalysis and History in Green and Troup, p. 60). We can thus understand historical events and personalities in terms of developments in a person or society’s psychological stages of development. Yet a critical question remains: How many applications can a theory that most psychologists no longer use, at least in its original form, have for historical events and people? Psychoanalysis may have worked well in the first part of the 20th-century, but it does not correspond to our present-day understanding of Western psychology.
The second problem is the reliability of the information obtained via psychoanalysis. Erik Erikson’s “The Legend of Hitler’s Childhood” uses excerpts from Hitler’s Mein Kampf to attempt to provide a psychoanalytic explanation for someone like Hitler and the German people who supported him. The most glaring problem here is that Erikson relies in part on Hitler’s own autobiography. In assessing any historical source, such as Mein Kampf, one must consider the trustworthiness of the observer. People can lie consciously or unconsciously, and political observers such as Hitler can “shade their reports, making them conform to the party line in one way or another (Howell & Prevenier, p. 68).” How can we trust anything that Hitler claimed in his work, considering, as Erikson puts it, the “fairy tale” quality (Green & Troup, p. 72) of the first chapter? Another related issue is that Erikson’s psychoanalysis must rely on analyzing something that Hitler wrote at a specific time in his life and in a specific context (when he was in prison). Hitler’s Mein Kampf does not cover his entire life, which is yet another reason to question the reliability of psychoanalysis, at least in this context.
The third problem, which also appears in Erikson’s work, is the actual application of psychoanalysis to groups of people at large. Erikson claims, for example, that “the Germans have always been inclined to manifest a comparable attitude of ambivalence toward mankind and the world at large (Green & Troup, p. 83).” This kind of statement makes it appear as though Germans have always been united in a particular attitude. The reality of human diversity is simply not acknowledged by such a statement, a statement which is itself the product of psychoanalytical comparisons between Hitler’s own psyche and the German peoples’ in general. Psychoanalysis can, as seen here, cause one to over-generalize or to project a supposition (in this case that Hitler had an Oedipus complex) onto an entire group of people.
Psychohistory thus has little, if any, practical use for historians in the 21st-century. Freud assumed that there were general principles that guided human behavior, or that “we have something in common, our humanity perhaps, with people in the past which allows us to understand them (Kren & Rappoport, Varieties of Psychohistory, p. 64 in Green & Troup, p. 59).” While it would perhaps be easier for historians to reconstruct history if this was true, the idea that we all have basic “common sense” or a shared nature is highly problematic (Green & Troup, p. 59). Thus historians would do well to be careful when dealing with anything regarding psychohistory, considering the intrinsic problems associated with it.
Quantitative history, unlike psychohistory, still has practical applications and is used by historians. The term “quantitative history” is actually an umbrella term for “a range of methodologies and theoretical bases, linked by their reliance on numerical data (Green & Troup, p. 141).” Specific examples of quantitative historical theory include econometrics (Green & Troup, p. 142) as well as serial history and its relative historical demography.
Quantitative history theory can be quite useful for some historians, especially when numerical data is abundant in a historian’s particular area of expertise. It can be especially promising for historians who wish to study large groups of people rather than just a few individuals in a particular time and place, as well as minorities for whom other sources are rare or nonexistent (Green & Troup, p. 141). Historical demography can be especially useful in “broadening our historical perspective” by showing us aspects of a particular society, such as birth and death rates, marriages and divorces, immigration records, price and wage records and various other pieces of information (Green & Troup, p. 145). Thus quantitative history can be valuable, but it too contains its own fair share of problems.
The issue of the data being reliable is of the utmost importance. One must consider source criticism and the associated questions that need to be asked by historians when dealing with any source, i.e. who, what, when, where, why and how. Is the source reliable? Why was the source created in the first place? Is there any textual evidence that the author left something out, or added something in, whether accidentally or intentionally? Is the source itself even authentic, or a fake? Could the author have made a simple, or perhaps not so simple, clerical error? Did the author have any known biases that could have colored his/her work? Simply because quantitative history may deal with absolute or relative quantities does not mean that records cannot be manipulated, fabricated or destroyed (Howell & Preveiner, p. 60-68). It is not enough to merely look at numbers and form a conclusion. The validity of the data must be established to the greatest possible extent.
One particular problem is with gaps in the records themselves. In the case of gaps in census records, a technique known as inverse projection was developed (Green & Troup, p. 146). LOESS regression models can help make sense of complex sets of data as well, and this particular method can be especially useful when dealing with large amounts of polling data. Another related issue is with the length of the data. It is inadvisable to draw conclusions from, say, birth records covering only a few years and then using that data to illustrate birth rates for a much longer period of time. This can, of course, pose understandable difficulties for historians studying regions or periods for which there is little quantitative data (or the existing data is from questionable sources). For example, consider the instance of a historian trying to study census material in a time and place when there is little of it. There is one possible but difficult way to deal with this problem, and that is by means of nominative analysis (Green & Troup, p. 146), whereby known historical figures are specifically located in the records and their names are then attached to various records (i.e. legal documents, censuses, etc.). The same technique can help historians reconstruct families and this learn more about a particular society, but the problems with that include not only the fact that such an endeavor takes a lot of time but also that the sources may be conflicted or the individuals in question difficult to locate (Green & Troup, p. 146). The objective benefit of quantitative history is contingent upon whether or not sufficient amounts of reliable data exist with which to form conclusions.
Another problem involves the interpretation of the data itself. What do changes in a particular data set actually imply? For example, if larger numbers of elderly people are going into nursing homes in American society, does that increase mean that Americans are no longer as willing to care for their elderly relatives as they once were? Or is it possible that it means that there are simply more nursing homes available now? Could it also mean that there are more elderly people to care for since people are living longer? The old saying “correlation does not necessarily equal causation” needs to be remembered by historians when viewing data sets. It can be particularly tempting to see the numbers and interpret them to fit one’s own preconceived assumptions or biases. Historians must be cognizant of their own biases when interpreting data. The numbers need to be allowed to speak for themselves.
There are cases of historians being mislead by data unintentionally. Mistakes can and do happen. Consider the example of Thomas Malthus. He obtained statistical information about Europe’s demography and its food supply, two different data sets, and extrapolated the data to the point where he found that Europe could eventually run out of food if its population continued expanding at a certain rate. There was a problem with his assumption though. He assumed that the relationships between the two data sets was a relatively simple one. In reality, the relationship between food supply and population growth is more complicated than he allowed for it to be. This was later demonstrated when an increase in good supply in the 18th-century was actually associated with a flattening of the population curve (Howell & Prevenier, p. 53). In this case, Malthus had relatively good data but assumed that his data sets would explain everything. Historians must consider not only the data that they have, but also the data that they lack. Had Malthus been able to see that the relationship between food supply and population was not as simple as he thought it was, he may have come to a different conclusion.
Marxism, psychohistory and quantitative history all have their benefits and their flaws. Marxism fails primarily because of its rather reductionist view of human history, which claims that historical change is solely due to economics. While psychohistory has been discredited for the most part by historians due to its own anachronisms and limitations, quantitative history has clear benefits and continues to be used by historians despite its limitations.
Bibliography
Green, Anna and Kathleen Troup, eds. The Houses of History: A Critical Reader in Twentieth-Century History and Theory. Manchester University Press, 1999.
Howell, Martha and Walter Prevenier. From Reliable Sources: An Introduction to Historical Methods. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2001.
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